Just a programming note: this is the last post this week, as I'll be headed to Canada tomorrow to take in a Blue Jays game on Saturday afternoon. It turns out we are going to be just in time to see the start of the Vlad Jr. show up close and personal. He's making his debut tomorrow, probably just before we roll into town. And we'll see game two on Saturday. I started to write a post talking about the economics of baseball and about delaying bringing up top prospects until June so the team controls another year on the rookie deal and all that, and then we could also spin out a bit about how older players just are not being signed period. Even players like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel, who were top of the game pitchers just a few seasons ago. Even five years ago, these guys would have been snatched up in a heartbeat. Now, though, I think the reasons have more to do with a call I've resisted for years and years. Maybe it makes me an old fogey, but I can't fight it any more. Analytics are ruining baseball. Look at my history, look at what I've written here. I'm somebody who was basically born in the game, played it religiously, watched it religiously. I'm making a 16-hour round-trip road trip just to catch a game. I'm not somebody who MLB should be happy is saying this, but I am saying it, and I am not the only ardent baseball fan saying it. You can hear Nate Silver go on a bit of a longer rant* about this same topic over on FiveThirtyEight, but he's right, and he's not the only person saying this, prominently or otherwise. *"Longer by podcast standards," that is. At this point, I have no idea how long this is going to go on. This isn't a new story by any means. The "three true outcomes"* of baseball have been absolutely dominant over the past several years, and the rates just go up and up. And, frankly, that is just boring baseball. Silver argues that maybe there aren't too many home runs, but there are definitely too many walks and strikeouts. He's not necessarily wrong. I would just argue that there are, in fact, too many of all three. There is no room any more for a slick-fielding but light-hitting middle infielder, or a particularly rangy centerfielder. There may be more room for a strong defensive catcher, either throwing runners out or framing pitches well, but even then, it's hard to see any major leaguer staying in the daily line-up who can't reliably hit over .200 and threaten to leave the park every now and then. *Home runs, walks, and strikeouts. Plays that fielders have no say in. I don't know if this is just another cycle in baseball or if this is a stasis point. We have seen an era of very strong pitching in the 60's and 70's. We saw an era obsessed with speed in the 80's. Then came the power era in the 90's, and the backlash from that pharmaceutical time in the new aughts. But, those felt different. Even in those times, you had the guys who were your stereoptypical sluggers, and then the guys who you could depend on to steal a base or lock down a defensive position in the late innings. You still had teams that relied more on power and others who relied more on pitching. And, of course, you had teams who played in ballparks that felt they had to build a team that was particularly well-suited for that field. I don't want to say all that is totally gone, but it certainly feels much diminished. Every team, it seems, is either built to be or is aspiring to be the same. Get a whole bunch of guys who can hit for a decent average and about twenty homers, and then a bunch of pitchers who reliably throw 97 or 98 and hit some ungodly spin rate. There only seems to be one mold of player that can make it to the show now, and frankly, it kind of sucks. If I wanted to watch wiffle ball, I'm sure I could scrounge up enough neighborhood kids and head to a park. There is a reason the World Wiffle Ball Championship is not regularly televised. I want baseball, damn it. If there's no fielding decisions, or throws to make or tough catches, or baserunning decisions, what's the point? And that's the game we're headed towards. We're playing glorified home run derby.* That's not baseball. The commissioner's office keeps freaking out the time games take or the pace of play and all this. The rule changes that are supposed to take effect next season are misguided at best, I think.** They might address some of the measurable effects, like total time of game and number of commercial breaks, but they don't address the product on the field. And that is where the real problem lies. *And MLB can't even get the rules right when they play ACTUAL home run derby. You're damn right I'm not going to let that go. **Not all of them. Fixing the roster rules at the end of the year was actually a really great step that I was surprised to see. The rest range from "Who Cares?" to "Quit Messing With It." Even when there is action, it barely qualifies as action. Either a guy is walking to first, walking to the dugout, or lightly jogging around the bases. That's not fun. That's not dramatic. I'm not in the position to tell anybody to stay away from big league parks. I'm going to a game on Saturday, and I'll probably go to a few more this year. But, let me plead a bit. Remember your local ballparks and teams this summer, too. Between seven levels of "official" minor league baseball, independent leagues, and wooden bat college leagues, there is sure to be some baseball happening close to you somewhere. Baseball where they actually play baseball. Not every player is going to be able to reach beyond the fence, and the pitchers might have to get crafty instead of just overpowering everybody. Defense will matter, baserunning will matter, baseball IQ will matter. I'm not going to tell you you'll necessarily see better baseball players here. You won't. How close it is will vary wildly. The Indianapolis Indians are going to look much more like a major league team than the Danville Dans. But, you know, I don't feel uncomfortable saying there is a good chance you will actually see a better baseball product in those games than you will see in the bigs. You'll definitely see more variety, anyway. And those smaller teams will be so much more thankful for your business. Comments are closed.
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